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2015 Russian real estate investment volumes the weakest in a decade

Moscow, 25 December, 2015 – In 4Q 2015 Russian real estate investment volumes decreased by 47% compared to the same period in 2014, with total, preliminary investment volumes at USD600m, according to JLL analysts’ calculations. For the full year, investment volumes stand at USD2.3bn, which is 38% below the volumes seen in 2014. These figures reflect the worst year for Russian real estate investment volumes since 2005.

   Saydam Salaheddin, Regional Director, Head of Capital Markets, JLL, Russia & CIS, commented: “The investment market in 2015 recorded extremely disappointing dynamics as a result of falling investor demand driven by a weakening economy and tight credit market conditions. We believe the situation will improve in 2016 from this very low base to $4bn, however given the volatility in the oil price which remains the main driver for the Russian economy, there are downside risks to our forecast.”

   Investors continued to be focused on assets which are located in Moscow, accounting for 92% of total investment volume in 2015. Investments in St. Petersburg real estate market reached USD61m in 2015 compared to USD364m in the same period of previous year, as a result its share decreased to 3% from 10% in 2014. The share of foreign capital came to 20% for 2015 vs. 24% in 2014.

   Evgeniy Semenov, Regional Director, Capital Markets, JLL, Russia & CIS, noted: “Following the policy tension and the market volatility foreign investors have not been active on the market during 2015. Overall, investment volumes both for the fourth quarter and the whole year were weak; however, we do see a reasonable pipeline of deals across all the sectors of real estate market through 2016. Today the Russian market could offer good investment opportunities to the foreign investors with strategic vision. As has been the case through 2015 much will depend on ruble and oil prices stability to support investment volumes and yield compression.”

   Though overall volumes are weak, yields remain unchanged against the previous quarter. In Q4 2015, JLL experts estimate that prime yields in Moscow remained at 10.5% and 10.75% for offices and shopping centres respectively, at 12% for warehouses.  Due to the limited number of transactions, these yields are indicative and are defined by understanding of the market by JLL experts.