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Annotation. The article offers a mathematical model of cargo movement along the selected section of the national logistics system, which shows how to calculate the damage caused by the impact of adverse events in the process of cargo transportation on a specific section of the chain. The model estimates the amount of cargo delay when moving along the selected route. Based on this, the damage can be calculated as a function of the value of delay in transit, and decisions can also be made to change the terms of contracts and conditions of transportation organization. The example of the Northern Sea Route transportation shows how the results of the model can be applied at different levels of decision-making.
Key words. Simulation model, risk, Monte Carlo methods, logistics system, mathematical modeling, national logistics system, Northern Sea Route.