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Published No. 2 of the LOGISTICS journal for 2024

11 march 2024

Dear readers! We present to your attention the second issue for 2024, on the pages of which you will find a lot of relevant materials.

The editorial board of Logistics magazine has changed its phone number

12 february 2024

Dear readers! The editorial board of Logistics magazine changed the phone number to +7 (495) 945-38-20. We remind you that for all your questions, you can contact: info@mg-agency.com

Published No. 1 of the LOGISTICS journal for 2024

9 february 2024

Dear readers! We present to your attention the first issue in 2024. According to tradition, it contains a lot of analytical materials based on the results of 2023. Our permanent partners NF Group have prepared an overview of the warehouse real estate markets in the regions of Russia, Moscow and St. Petersburg.

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Конференция «Supply Chain Elective. Компетенции будущего», 29 сентября 2023г., Московская обл., д. Сколково

CITATIONS

«There be three things which make a nation great and prosperous: a fertile soil, busy workshops, easy conveyance for men and goods from place to place.»

Francis Bacon

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Market Guide Agency predicts an annual increase of 2.0-5.0% in demand on transport and logistics services in the Altai Krai from 2017 to 2025

1 september 2015

Altai Krai is a large industrial and agricultural region of Russia, where industry and agriculture are the basic branches. The region is primarily focused on the agricultural, food and industrial cargoes, which determine the characteristics of the Altai logistics complex. In Altay Krai transport system is one of the basic sectors of the economy, the most important part of the production and social infrastructure, it is represented by rail, road, water and air transport. Altai Krai is one of the largest transportation hubs in Russia. Federal highway M52, passing through the territory of the region, connects Russia with China and Mongolia, the A349 highway – with the Republic of Kazakhstan.

The competitive environment in the logistics market of the Altai Krai includes the transport and logistics and freight forwarding companies and companies with temporary storage warehouses¹ (for example, of LLC Liberal Values). Key suppliers of demands for temporary storage area are the wholesale and retail companies in various fields. In Altai Krai there are located 7 temporary storage warehouses: 4 in Barnaul, 1 in Biysk, 1 in Veseloyarsk and 1 in Rubtsovsk².

Figure 1. Geographical distribution of temporary storage warehouses in the Altai Krai

The total volume of quality warehouse space in the Altai Krai (classes A +, A, B) doesn’t exceed 120-150 thousand sq. m. They are owned by industrial and commercial companies of the Altai Krai.

The total turnover of the Altai Krai is about 44 million tons, including FEA – about 1.4 million tons (imports – 146.3 thousand tons, export – 1245.5 thousand tons). In addition, through the Altai Krai a significant part of the import of goods is transported into other regions of Russia, in particular from China and Kazakhstan and vice versa.

Table 1. The total turnover of all modes of transport in the Altai Krai in 2010 – 2014

In 2013–2014 the volume of cargo transportation by road and rail in Altai Krai has declined. At the end of 2014 the decline was –3.3% compared to 2013, the decline in freight traffic continued in 2015.

In the structure of cargo transportation along the area of the Altai Krai road transport dominates, its share exceeding 75%. The share of the rail transport is about 20%.

The largest regional partners of the Altai Krai are Lipetsk Oblast, Kemerovo Oblast, the Krasnoyarsk Oblast – their combined share exceeds 47.5% of regional transportation.

The main types of goods transported through the territory of the Altai Krai by all modes of transport:

coke-chemical products, coal;
grain, flour and cereal products;
timber;
scrap metal, building nonmetallic materials;
petroleum products;
food products, requiring special temperature storage for the needs of the retail chains.

The total capacity of the transport and logistics market of Altai Krai (potential demand for transport and logistics services), excluding transit traffic of about 42 million tons.

In the Altai Krai in the structure of demand for transport and logistics services by the functional evaluation estimated potential demand for management logistics, as well as the services of storage and warehousing (3PL) is about 2.1–2.5 million tons, including storage services – about 2.1 million tons. Demand for transport of all modes of transport and forwarding services is about 39.5 million tons (only transportation services – about 37.3 million tons). Thus, management logistics in the structure of the market of transport and logistics services in the Altai Krai accounts for about 1%, storage services and warehousing services – about 5% of the market (Fig. 2).

Figure 2. Structure of the transport and logistics market of the Altai Krai by types of services, million tons

The development of the logistics market of the Altai Krai is primarily due to trends in the segment of retail trade and consumer goods production.

In the medium term the domestic and export cargo flows related to the mineral resources (coal, coke products, timber, etc.), as well as the flow of grain (flour production), railway direction in particular, will continue to make the main influence on the Altay logistics market. Road freight will be formed due to the supplies of products to the retail chains and of retail food products (including the products, requiring special temperature conditions) and FMCG.

In January-March 2015 Altai Krai increased the industrial production in the following segments:

manufacture of machinery and equipment (141.3% 1st place);
coke production (104.0%, 2nd place);
chemical production (100.5%, 4th place);
manufacture of electrical and optical equipment (105.2%, 4th place).

According to the Main Directorate of Economics and Investments of the Altai Krai, the production index in the mining sector in January-March 2015 amounted to 102.8%, which allowed the territory to take the 6th place in the Siberian Federal District (SFD). The index of agricultural production during the same period amounted to 101.0%, which corresponds to 5th place in the Siberian Federal District.

However, in recent years (2013–2015 years) the region has a decrease in demand on transport and logistics services, as evidenced by the overall decline in freight volumes. Only during the first half of 2015 the volume of traffic decreased by 9%, and cargo turnover decreased by 13%.

According to the experts of “Market Guide Agency”, at the end of 2015 demand on transport and logistics services in the Altai Krai will probably reduce by 5–7% compared to 2014. In 2016, the decline in demand on transport and logistics services will continue and will be –3 ... –5% by the end of the year.

Figure 3. Scenario forecast of capacity of the transport and logistics services market of the Altai Krai in 2015-2025.

Under the baseline scenario of development in 2015–2016 in the Altai Krai there will be a decline in demand for transport and logistics services, which will be –4 ... –5% per year. This trend, in the medium term, will be due to the factors such as:

nstability of the financial and economic situation;
stagnation/decline in the industrial production. The production indexes in a number of sectors are reduced (as of January-June 2015), the demand is lowering, and thus the production of many types of products, i.e., the amount of cargoes becomes less;
outflow of capital, decline in investment, including infrastructure;
reduction of the foreign trade cargo flows due to worsening terms of trade;
slowing income growth and domestic demand.

These factors can lead to a decrease in demand on transport and logistics services, and consequently, an increase of competition, simplification of the market and reduction of the share of value added services, which was already observed in 2009.

In 2017–2025 the demand on transport and logistics services in the Altai Krai will begin to restore, the annual growth rate will be 2–5%, thus the index of 50.9 million tons (plus 21.2% compared to 2014) will have been achieved by 2025.

1. TSW – temporary storage warehouse.

2. TSW of LLC Liberal Values in Veseloyarsk was transformed into customs and logistics terminal in 2013.

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